05.03.08 Survey

05.03.08 Survey

4 March in the United States does not go any significant macroeconomic data ...

4 March in the United States does not go any significant macroeconomic data, so speculators and investors' attention was drawn to the statement of Governors FedRezerva. Especially in this regard remembered Chairman of the Central USA Ben Bernanke, who has once again highlighted the current problems in the world's largest economy, in particular the housing market and mortgage lending in the sector. Investors seem to be alerted several chapters concern Fed current state of the United States economy, which has led to a decline in the stock market the region. Also worth noting and presentation manager FedRezerva Donald Kohn, who lamented not the best conditions at the moment for banks, which could mean a reduction in the volume of consumer cancellation of the industry, and lower profit growth from finorganizatsy.

Pressure on commodity currencies in the middle of this week is likely to worsen. Suffice it has been that on Tuesday the price of raw materials (oil, metals) fell by the maximum value in the past six weeks. More attention should be paid to the fact that, along with commodity platforms tydne and equity markets, that is, on all fronts on Tuesday, we have seen further dumping of risk assets and the elimination of positions carry trade that could not hit on the position of such high rates, as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, which are most used to playing on the difference in interest rates.

In the case of the Australian dollar, we still talk about the event March 4 meeting of the Central Bank of Australia, which, as expected, raised the interest rate to 0.25% to 7.25%. In principle, it has to create some profit fixation in a pair AUD / USD, which in the previous few weeks have demonstrated quite the same substantial growth.

The reason for the weakening of the Australian currency positions eventually became steytment, who presented the Central Bank of Australia, there are clear indication of the fact that the increased markedly in recent times, interest rates already have led to the emergence of signs that consumers and businesses have begun to gradually reduce costs . That kind of wording may well be interpreted as a market that the cycle of tightening monetary policy in the region has come to its logical conclusion, which may cause an even greater appreciation of the AUD.

For the Canadian dollar, as expected, a significant negative is that the interest rate in the region on Tuesday was not lowered to 0.25%, and immediately to 0.5% to 3.5%. After such a radical step by the Bank of Canada seems to be saying that in kratkosrochke we can see another round of reducing the rate of the Canadian dollar before the start of this currency adjusted to the recent fall. As in the case of the Australian currency, here too much attention should be paid to steytmentu, who presented the Central Bank. The document states that the problems in the United States will have a significant impact on the world economy, as well as there are clear signals that the Bank of Canada will continue to continue on the path of monetary policy to mitigate, that is, perhaps reducing interest bid in the region before the end of the year to at least 3%.

EUR / CAD - if not statements of representatives of the ECB, it may already be on Tuesday reached the level of 1.52, and so it had to rely on Wednesday. Recall that on the basis of the past couple days has demonstrated the growth of 1.5030 to 1.5130.

CAD / JPY - here we expect to continue to support the achievement of 102, which, in our view, can only hinder the unwillingness of the world's stock markets continue to fall on Wednesday.

Regarding the pair USD, CAD, here on Tuesday an increase from 0.9880 to 0.9950 in the coming do not exclude recovery rate to 1.0000, 1.1000.

If we look at the data on GDP for the euro 4 kv07, published on Tuesday, it seems that anything interesting they not, given that statistics was actually within expectations. Thus, the figure was 0.4% for / and to 2.2% g / g is forecast to 0.4% / 2.3%, and to the g / d. But if one looks closely at the above-mentioned report, then one can not help but notice that there are exports slowed considerably in the region, must continue to draw attention to the fact that the level of consumer spending, which account for up to 60%, fell by 0.1%, which mean weak domestic consumption, and potentially lower growth rate euro. Overall, it comes as no surprise that, after the publication of GDP in the European market shares, we have seen a wave of some sales.

Is not ruled out that the statistics has become something even signal to action for European officials. Before and Finance Minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, and French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, and the head of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet said that they were somewhat concerned about the weakness of the American currency and, in general, the United States would make sense to think about the dollar strong. In short, the recent volatility in FOREX and the strong growth that we have seen in a pair EUR / USD, it is not satisfied with the ECB. If so, that on Thursday under regular meeting of the Central Trichet may again point to a substantially increased in recent downward risks for the European economy, or make it clear that the expensive road euro concerned him. For speculators, other things being equal, it might be a pretext to reduce the rate of correctional EUR / USD 1.50 in the area of support, and ultimately can be a good opportunity to open a new "long" positions on the currency pair.

After Tuesday, however, rate EUR / USD has changed very little further consolidated in the price range 1.5160 / 1.5240. Indeed way out of this corridor may indicate the direction of the further appreciation of the euro.

Add that some negative for the euro in the middle of this week - it is also a decline in oil prices.

A significant positive for the Swiss franc on Tuesday became not only the dumping of risk assets and the next flight to quality investors, but also in Switzerland published data on GDP growth in the region of 4 kv07 who were noticeably better than expectations. According to published statistics for the period from October to December, GDP growth accelerated to the maximum of Switzerland in the past two years against a backdrop of escalating costs for households and businesses, representing 1% against the projected 0,5% (0,9% of the previous value).

Significantly more and the fact that inflation in Switzerland has been at the level of 2.4% in February, which corresponds to a maximum chetyrnadtsatiletnemu and could well mean a further rise in interest rates in the region. As a result, the cross EUR / CHF decline we have seen from 1.5840 to 1.5790, and the couple GBP / CHF falling to 2.0610. Due to the fact that the franc now looks very overbought, from any trading recommendations on these cross-rates, we have refrained.