About a month ago, referring to the considerable risks for the dollar on FOREX
About a month ago, referring to the considerable risks for the dollar on FOREX, we have said, first, that FedRezerv meeting at 18 \ 03 can go to reducing the federal funds rate by another 50 basis points. Approximately one week or one and a half ago, it has gone that could make the Fed softening of monetary policy immediately by 75 basis points, the market is now much speculation on the fact that the Central Bank and the United States could do to reduce the interest rate in March by 1%. Naturally, the dollar under such mood in FOREX had no choice but to pursue a buyout.
Incidentally, with regard to the reasons for such a high probability of further mitigate the growth of monetary policy in the United States, in addition to anything else you want to draw attention to the stock market and the United States, where the major stock indices (S & P500, Dow-Jones, Nasdaq Composite) to renew its close January minima.
Given that the overwhelming majority of American citizens invests its assets in real estate or stocks, it is legitimate that FedRezerv will prevent a vast drop in the national sites. Regarding the employment report Friday from the world's largest economy, it seems to me the negative and neutral-not so much frightening as we try to provide many economists and analysts. At least this indicates that the unemployment rate (Unemployment rate) in the region in February fell to 4.8%, which is quite compensate for the negative Nonfarm payrolls at 63k. The situation will change if the monthly decline in employment during the quarter will be in the order 100k, and jobless claims while closely fit to 400k.
Expected interest rates for 2008 (blue line at 27, 02, red at 07 \ 03)
Still on the subject of interest rates, should also be noted that while all the same speculators for the most part expect reduce rates 18, 03 at 0.75%, and rumours of -1% somewhat exaggerated. If the Fed does decide to bid immediately cut by 1%, the first dollar it can to cause to fall on FOREX, but then speculators may well begin to play that by the next meeting of the Central Bank will take a pause and cease to lower rates, which ultimately could positively impact on the American currency. Another option would be to what is now selling the dollar, and to reduce fakut at 0.75%, in contrast, will begin to repurchase fixing profit.
To some extent the situation in a possible Fed decision next week, as well as the attitude of investors to risk (Carry trade - JPY, CHF) can clarify the March 13 publication of retail sales (Retail sales) for February (0,1% forecast, previous value 0.3%). It is safe to assume that some currency market participants will be given for the negative statistics for the dollar, so the eve of its withdrawal would try to play a demotion to the American currency.
Translating everything for a couple of EUR, USD, in this regard can not be ruled out that course at the beginning of the week will try to approach or update Friday maximums. I would, however, in this case from new purchases declined, given the fact that many of target levels for the euro in record-short time have been achieved that, coupled with perekuplennostyu EUR-USD may lead to the fixation of profits and reduce correctional course. As a key rezistansa on euro-dollar at this level, there are now 1.54, 1.55. Regarding the possible sale of the euro, it is advised to keep in mind, I would not only stop on the warrant, but also about the fact that the trend against the often fraught with negative mat. waiting or more simply put, negative result.
Fundamentally because buyers and sellers in EUR, USD, in my opinion, can be assessed on Tuesday, when Germany will ZEW economic expectations index (ZEW Economic Expectations Index) for March (previous value -39,5). For GBP, USD considerable attention on Monday is to give data on inflation, which fell in the UK day. Height above 2.02 could marked achievement rezistansa 2.04.
Individual attention in the forthcoming% decline in rates in the United States should pay carry trade. Personally, I proceed from the fact that the decline in the federal funds rate at 0.75% -1% can be no cause for the rise of world equity markets that would weaken, in turn, kratkosrochke position in the yen and the franc on FOREX, allowing play to promotions XXX, XXX and JPY, CHF.
In the meantime, it is possible that the USD-JPY will try once again to test 101.50 support, or even try to poydoyti cherished level of 100. A positive development for the Asian currencies should, in the view of analysts who believe that, in last Friday Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nugaka not given any attention Harmful growth rate for exporters yen, noting only that the Government should closely monitor changes in exchange rates . It should be noted that, beginning in 1995, any reduction pair USD, JPY to 100 verbal accompanied by the first, and then the real currency intervention. On the other hand, the problems of the Japanese economy, sooner or later, may be forced to resort to the old Central tools to stimulate economic growth. Overall, we shall follow the news background.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Review American and Asian session 10.03.2008
Review American and Asian session 10.03.2008
Data on the job market in the United States were mixed.
On Friday session at the American dollar rose against the backdrop of the labour market in the United States.
Economists forecast the number of jobs created outside of agricultural wallpapers in February should range from 0 to +25000. Given ADP data presented on Wednesday, which showed a reduction of jobs in the private sector to 23000, market participants expect the weak official data, despite forecasts of economists. As noted above figures actually responded to the expectations of the market, which allowed the euro rate rise to a new maximum of 1.5463. However, the sudden decline in unemployment has made adjustments to the dynamics of the course.
According to the Ministry of Labor Statistics the number of new jobs can only dream of agricultural again in February fell by 63000, the January figure was revised for the worse before -22 000. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.8%, while economists predicted growth of up to 5%. Ambiguous data led to the fixation of short positions on the dollar, which has supported the dollar rate.
Although data on the labour market in the United States have fallen short of forecasts of economists, the new week dollar may continue to decline again, as well as the reduction of jobs in the United States indicates a worsening of the American economy. According to economists, "the reduction of unemployment was not due to an increase in employment, a reduction in the workforce at 450000 people" - reported in the Dow Jones, that is a negative point.
At the Asian session rates of the major currencies traded in limited ranges. At the time of this writing, Pope euro / dollar CIOC at 1.5375. Pound against the dollar negotiate with the level of 2.0175. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0205. Para dollar / yen level from 102.00 CIOC.
Today at the European session, the main events will be data on industrial production and manufacturing industries in the manufacturing sector for January in the United Kingdom, as well as data on producer prices in February. The data will be presented at 12:30 Moscow time. Pound may be supported after the publication of the UK.
Data on the job market in the United States were mixed.
On Friday session at the American dollar rose against the backdrop of the labour market in the United States.
Economists forecast the number of jobs created outside of agricultural wallpapers in February should range from 0 to +25000. Given ADP data presented on Wednesday, which showed a reduction of jobs in the private sector to 23000, market participants expect the weak official data, despite forecasts of economists. As noted above figures actually responded to the expectations of the market, which allowed the euro rate rise to a new maximum of 1.5463. However, the sudden decline in unemployment has made adjustments to the dynamics of the course.
According to the Ministry of Labor Statistics the number of new jobs can only dream of agricultural again in February fell by 63000, the January figure was revised for the worse before -22 000. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.8%, while economists predicted growth of up to 5%. Ambiguous data led to the fixation of short positions on the dollar, which has supported the dollar rate.
Although data on the labour market in the United States have fallen short of forecasts of economists, the new week dollar may continue to decline again, as well as the reduction of jobs in the United States indicates a worsening of the American economy. According to economists, "the reduction of unemployment was not due to an increase in employment, a reduction in the workforce at 450000 people" - reported in the Dow Jones, that is a negative point.
At the Asian session rates of the major currencies traded in limited ranges. At the time of this writing, Pope euro / dollar CIOC at 1.5375. Pound against the dollar negotiate with the level of 2.0175. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0205. Para dollar / yen level from 102.00 CIOC.
Today at the European session, the main events will be data on industrial production and manufacturing industries in the manufacturing sector for January in the United Kingdom, as well as data on producer prices in February. The data will be presented at 12:30 Moscow time. Pound may be supported after the publication of the UK.
Bank of Japan
The saga continues with those who have become the head of the Bank of Japan ...
The saga continues with those who have become the head of the Bank of Japan. The most probable candidacy in the matter, Toshiro Muto, said on Tuesday that he intends to defend this post independence of the Central Bank in making all decisions on what should be the monetary policy (in the past can hardly believe that). This issue can finally be closed (Muto is approved or not) for 14 or 18 March. I, like, have to go into more detail of the issues, there will be another chapter in the future BOJ intervention on currency or decline, rising interest rates, but, in my view, a decisive influence on the position of yen in FOREX now can provide, especially , the attitude of investors to risk or to carry trade, and what will stop in more detail.
It remains the best indicators of investors' attitudes to risk should consider the current momentum of world stock markets, as well as yield Treasuries. In the first case it is sufficient to draw attention to yesterday's closure of the U.S. stock market, where indexes lost more than one per cent (Dow-Jones -1.29%, S & P500 -1.55% -1.95% Nasdaq Composite) to understand that " "bull trend on the yen is not accidental. Based on the working hypothesis that the S & P500 has a strong chance to decline until 1230 or even 1190, 1200, I would be morally prepared for the fact that a pair of USD-JPY may well try protknut familiar, we support 101.50, 60, went to 100. However, a certain idea is to try to play to increase the USD, JPY from current price levels, it should be recognized all the same there.
Again, in a working idea, I would have remembered that the next possible rate reduction in the United States at 0.75%, 1% within the next Fed meeting or extraordinary support could greatly world market shares, causing them to rise 1-2 days, which, in turn, would ease for a few trading sessions position yen or franc. No less positive for Equities, however, can also be a good statistics from the United States this week, if it is. This largely relates to data on retail sales in the United States on Thursday. Given favorable scenario of events the USD, JPY could recover up to 105.
June futures on the price of ten-year treasury bonds (daily chart).
Add that on Tuesday morning, we see some attempt futures on the American stock indices, with the result that at the same FOREX cross-rates AUD, NZD and JPY \ JPY skorrektirovatsya trying to lower on Monday. In doing so, the Australian currency looks at the beginning of this week somewhat worse than New Zealand, which may be due to the fact that the index of business sentiment in Australia from National Australia Bank in February went below zero again, reaching -2 item, which shows pessimistic mood among business people.
Certain negative for AUD may also be tense situation at the national credit market, vyrazivshayasya in lending rates before takeoff maximum values from the mid 90 - ies. If a daily infusion of money into the market through repo operations of the Central Bank of Australia nuzhnoo not bring results, and to the same situation on foreign markets will continue to deteriorate, it may well be time to go talk about downside risks to the Australian economy and falling interest rates in the region. In the meantime, note that in AUD, USD within the framework of a long-term rising trend has some foundation in the area of support skorrektirovatsya 0.89, 0.90 in March and April.
But one of these indicators should carry trade take on commodity price market. Until very clearly see the outflow of money from stock investor in commodities, which ultimately will, and it became one of the main reasons for the take-off in oil prices prior to $ 108 a barrel. It is not ruled out that "bull" trend in commodities will continue at least several more months, given that, firstly, we have not seen any signs of a turn for the U.S. stock market, and, secondly, Due to the fact that the subject of write-offs, "sabpraym" still scares investors. Barclays Recent studies indicate that 34% of the 260 institutional investors polled consider it appropriate in the next three years, about 10% of its assets placed in raw materials. Another indicator of this kind of sentiment can be further inflow of funds at the site where treated commodity futures.
As a conclusion, it can be assumed that began in spring will have to play at least in kratkosrochke at improving on raw materials. Here, it is true, too, much is about what it would be Fed monetary policy. First, I would immediately made an amendment to the fact that commodities are now actively buy under the imminent decline% rate, so by the fact the decline could start fixing some profits in raw materials, and, secondly, would monitor the situation in China, where inflation at 11 - a maximum of summer could mean further tightening of monetary policy in the region, as a result, higher interest rates and eventually to some correction in commodities. Also, I would have tried to refrain from positions on the sale of gold and oil, given that there, and there is this game will go on lowering counter to the prevailing trend.
Regarding the FOREX Market, the take-off in commodity prices may mean the following:
expensive oil will facilitate the continuation of the rising trend in EUR, USD, as the ECB will continue through the growing rate of the national currency to prevent a possible strengthening of inflationary pressures in the region;
commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) can get with the times even more "fed" on the part of commodity platforms, especially in the long term could manifest itself in the currency pairs, where there is a AUD and NZD;
Bank of Japan may accept a further strengthening yen rate, that is, with an even greater decline in the cross rates XXX, JPY, because only in this way can be purchase for the national economy and, in particular, to manufacturers of raw materials and household inflation and gasoline;
in the long period of expensive raw materials will mean even greater increase in inflation in some economies the world, which ultimately may mean already increasing, rather than reducing interest rates in the United States in 2009.
With regard to upcoming auctions in London and Frankfurt, the cross-rate EUR-CHF can continue to grow, recover to a decline on Monday when a) statistics from Germany (ZEW Economic Expectations Index) at 13:00 Moscow time would be better expectations for March ( Forecast -40, previous value -39,5) b) European stock indices, as well as futures on indexes stabilized USA at the upcoming European trading session and would not fall. Good statistics in Europe might lead to the purchase and in a pair of EUR-USD.
The saga continues with those who have become the head of the Bank of Japan. The most probable candidacy in the matter, Toshiro Muto, said on Tuesday that he intends to defend this post independence of the Central Bank in making all decisions on what should be the monetary policy (in the past can hardly believe that). This issue can finally be closed (Muto is approved or not) for 14 or 18 March. I, like, have to go into more detail of the issues, there will be another chapter in the future BOJ intervention on currency or decline, rising interest rates, but, in my view, a decisive influence on the position of yen in FOREX now can provide, especially , the attitude of investors to risk or to carry trade, and what will stop in more detail.
It remains the best indicators of investors' attitudes to risk should consider the current momentum of world stock markets, as well as yield Treasuries. In the first case it is sufficient to draw attention to yesterday's closure of the U.S. stock market, where indexes lost more than one per cent (Dow-Jones -1.29%, S & P500 -1.55% -1.95% Nasdaq Composite) to understand that " "bull trend on the yen is not accidental. Based on the working hypothesis that the S & P500 has a strong chance to decline until 1230 or even 1190, 1200, I would be morally prepared for the fact that a pair of USD-JPY may well try protknut familiar, we support 101.50, 60, went to 100. However, a certain idea is to try to play to increase the USD, JPY from current price levels, it should be recognized all the same there.
Again, in a working idea, I would have remembered that the next possible rate reduction in the United States at 0.75%, 1% within the next Fed meeting or extraordinary support could greatly world market shares, causing them to rise 1-2 days, which, in turn, would ease for a few trading sessions position yen or franc. No less positive for Equities, however, can also be a good statistics from the United States this week, if it is. This largely relates to data on retail sales in the United States on Thursday. Given favorable scenario of events the USD, JPY could recover up to 105.
June futures on the price of ten-year treasury bonds (daily chart).
Add that on Tuesday morning, we see some attempt futures on the American stock indices, with the result that at the same FOREX cross-rates AUD, NZD and JPY \ JPY skorrektirovatsya trying to lower on Monday. In doing so, the Australian currency looks at the beginning of this week somewhat worse than New Zealand, which may be due to the fact that the index of business sentiment in Australia from National Australia Bank in February went below zero again, reaching -2 item, which shows pessimistic mood among business people.
Certain negative for AUD may also be tense situation at the national credit market, vyrazivshayasya in lending rates before takeoff maximum values from the mid 90 - ies. If a daily infusion of money into the market through repo operations of the Central Bank of Australia nuzhnoo not bring results, and to the same situation on foreign markets will continue to deteriorate, it may well be time to go talk about downside risks to the Australian economy and falling interest rates in the region. In the meantime, note that in AUD, USD within the framework of a long-term rising trend has some foundation in the area of support skorrektirovatsya 0.89, 0.90 in March and April.
But one of these indicators should carry trade take on commodity price market. Until very clearly see the outflow of money from stock investor in commodities, which ultimately will, and it became one of the main reasons for the take-off in oil prices prior to $ 108 a barrel. It is not ruled out that "bull" trend in commodities will continue at least several more months, given that, firstly, we have not seen any signs of a turn for the U.S. stock market, and, secondly, Due to the fact that the subject of write-offs, "sabpraym" still scares investors. Barclays Recent studies indicate that 34% of the 260 institutional investors polled consider it appropriate in the next three years, about 10% of its assets placed in raw materials. Another indicator of this kind of sentiment can be further inflow of funds at the site where treated commodity futures.
As a conclusion, it can be assumed that began in spring will have to play at least in kratkosrochke at improving on raw materials. Here, it is true, too, much is about what it would be Fed monetary policy. First, I would immediately made an amendment to the fact that commodities are now actively buy under the imminent decline% rate, so by the fact the decline could start fixing some profits in raw materials, and, secondly, would monitor the situation in China, where inflation at 11 - a maximum of summer could mean further tightening of monetary policy in the region, as a result, higher interest rates and eventually to some correction in commodities. Also, I would have tried to refrain from positions on the sale of gold and oil, given that there, and there is this game will go on lowering counter to the prevailing trend.
Regarding the FOREX Market, the take-off in commodity prices may mean the following:
expensive oil will facilitate the continuation of the rising trend in EUR, USD, as the ECB will continue through the growing rate of the national currency to prevent a possible strengthening of inflationary pressures in the region;
commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) can get with the times even more "fed" on the part of commodity platforms, especially in the long term could manifest itself in the currency pairs, where there is a AUD and NZD;
Bank of Japan may accept a further strengthening yen rate, that is, with an even greater decline in the cross rates XXX, JPY, because only in this way can be purchase for the national economy and, in particular, to manufacturers of raw materials and household inflation and gasoline;
in the long period of expensive raw materials will mean even greater increase in inflation in some economies the world, which ultimately may mean already increasing, rather than reducing interest rates in the United States in 2009.
With regard to upcoming auctions in London and Frankfurt, the cross-rate EUR-CHF can continue to grow, recover to a decline on Monday when a) statistics from Germany (ZEW Economic Expectations Index) at 13:00 Moscow time would be better expectations for March ( Forecast -40, previous value -39,5) b) European stock indices, as well as futures on indexes stabilized USA at the upcoming European trading session and would not fall. Good statistics in Europe might lead to the purchase and in a pair of EUR-USD.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
10.03.08. The technical picture on the weekly schedules
10.03.08. The technical picture on the weekly schedules
Early in the week there is a new sense of the long term to assess the situation and consider possible options for further developments.
Euro Up Movement reached an interim target level model expansion 4a-b (523.6% at 1.5395), the closest intermediate level to a new record maximum dollar seen in a week's schedule at 1.5599, while the indicators, in particular, day RSI on our schedule, show signs are rooted in the divergence. Price is trying to break above 1.54 figure, but it is possible that the said zone of intermediate targets downward correction may take place. The nearest correctional support at the week-long schedule is located at the level of 1.5225, the next - 1.5070.
Pound has sharply accelerated movement up and now seeks to attain the level of resistance of 2.0245, which is a 50% correction of its last downward movement of the absolute maximum. Inflationary indicators emerged today, supported sending up, but this level of a correction downwards.
The fall of Jena can be described as a model correction 1-2 at the week-long schedule. Yen fell to a critical level zone 261.8% of the model at 101.40, down probiv multi least 101.65 and slightly off above 102. We can not exclude a return to 101.40 and attempted to break below 100 in the area. Prevent such attempts could either explicitly direct intervention of Japanese financial authorities or interior fears of investors to be aware of the approach to these values. Japan MOF has not shown itself does, fearing perhaps a possible U.S. displeasure when talking about intervention at the official level.
Frank dropped to the level of 423.6% expansion Hab model for a week's schedule (L level at 1.0170 on the week-long schedule). This correction could be upwards of a new historic minimum pair. Closest week's resistance - 23.6% level of 1.0360. If the decline continues without correction, the goal will be the level of parity.
Early in the week there is a new sense of the long term to assess the situation and consider possible options for further developments.
Euro Up Movement reached an interim target level model expansion 4a-b (523.6% at 1.5395), the closest intermediate level to a new record maximum dollar seen in a week's schedule at 1.5599, while the indicators, in particular, day RSI on our schedule, show signs are rooted in the divergence. Price is trying to break above 1.54 figure, but it is possible that the said zone of intermediate targets downward correction may take place. The nearest correctional support at the week-long schedule is located at the level of 1.5225, the next - 1.5070.
Pound has sharply accelerated movement up and now seeks to attain the level of resistance of 2.0245, which is a 50% correction of its last downward movement of the absolute maximum. Inflationary indicators emerged today, supported sending up, but this level of a correction downwards.
The fall of Jena can be described as a model correction 1-2 at the week-long schedule. Yen fell to a critical level zone 261.8% of the model at 101.40, down probiv multi least 101.65 and slightly off above 102. We can not exclude a return to 101.40 and attempted to break below 100 in the area. Prevent such attempts could either explicitly direct intervention of Japanese financial authorities or interior fears of investors to be aware of the approach to these values. Japan MOF has not shown itself does, fearing perhaps a possible U.S. displeasure when talking about intervention at the official level.
Frank dropped to the level of 423.6% expansion Hab model for a week's schedule (L level at 1.0170 on the week-long schedule). This correction could be upwards of a new historic minimum pair. Closest week's resistance - 23.6% level of 1.0360. If the decline continues without correction, the goal will be the level of parity.
Overview of the European session 10.03.2008
Overview of the European session 10.03.2008
At the European bid rates of the major currencies traded threads in limited ranges.
Pound was supported after data on producer prices in the UK, which continue to show strong growth, which indicates the neskoroe lower interest rates the Bank of England.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the UK annual growth vacation producer price index in February was 5.7% and was below forecast, but still is at a high level. The monthly increase in February was 0.3%. Index purchase prices in February rose by 1.7% and annual growth of 19.3%. Both are exceeded forecasts of economists. The high growth rate of purchasing prices point to a further increase in prices that trigger the growth of consumer inflation.
Also supporting the rate of the pound had data, which show that production in the manufacturing industry in the UK in January rose by 0.4% compared with December, exceeding forecasts of economists. The annual growth rate of 0.6%, also exceeding projections.
At the same time, industrial production in January fell by 0.1% compared with December but rose by 0.4% over the same period last year. Data on industrial production were worse than economists forecast, but considering the strong volatility of this indicator is the three-month average value compared with the previous three-month period, has not changed.
At the time of writing steam euro / dollar CIOC near 1.5360. Para pound / dollar level of 2.0200 at the CIOC. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0230. Para dollar / yen level from 102.20 CIOC.
At American important session of the United States is expected. At 17:00 Moscow time data will be presented at wholesale stocks in January in the United States. These data are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market, the sale will be held, focusing on American stock indices.
At the European bid rates of the major currencies traded threads in limited ranges.
Pound was supported after data on producer prices in the UK, which continue to show strong growth, which indicates the neskoroe lower interest rates the Bank of England.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the UK annual growth vacation producer price index in February was 5.7% and was below forecast, but still is at a high level. The monthly increase in February was 0.3%. Index purchase prices in February rose by 1.7% and annual growth of 19.3%. Both are exceeded forecasts of economists. The high growth rate of purchasing prices point to a further increase in prices that trigger the growth of consumer inflation.
Also supporting the rate of the pound had data, which show that production in the manufacturing industry in the UK in January rose by 0.4% compared with December, exceeding forecasts of economists. The annual growth rate of 0.6%, also exceeding projections.
At the same time, industrial production in January fell by 0.1% compared with December but rose by 0.4% over the same period last year. Data on industrial production were worse than economists forecast, but considering the strong volatility of this indicator is the three-month average value compared with the previous three-month period, has not changed.
At the time of writing steam euro / dollar CIOC near 1.5360. Para pound / dollar level of 2.0200 at the CIOC. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0230. Para dollar / yen level from 102.20 CIOC.
At American important session of the United States is expected. At 17:00 Moscow time data will be presented at wholesale stocks in January in the United States. These data are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market, the sale will be held, focusing on American stock indices.
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 11.03.2008
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 11.03.2008
The increase in oil prices is not allowed to fall down the rate of gold.
On Monday, precious metals traded courses with decreasing, but the resumption of growth in oil prices supported precious metals market.
At the European session courses precious metals declined against the backdrop of fixation of long positions, as has been the events that could support further growth.
Also, the support of the increase in the prices of platinum sophistication, as well as reports from South Africa indicate an increase in production. Recall that the reduction in the production of platinum was due to the lack of electricity supply in the mining and processing enterprises in South Africa.
At the American bid sharp rise in oil prices lifted precious metals market from further decline. The price of light sweet oil brands rose toward $ 108.00 per barrel, the maximum for all the history. Increases in oil prices the price of gold has returned most of the lost positions.
Today, the key event at the European bid will institute ZEW data for the euro, but by the United States for a foreign trade deficit figures for January. Today, the dollar may be under pressure against the background of expectations of weak data that could support precious metals market.
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 973.70 per ounce, against $ 975.90 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 19650 per ounce, against $ 20270 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction courses precious metals traded in narrow ranges. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 972.00. Silver torgovalos at $ 19630 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 966.00 - 976.00.
Technically, the price of gold continues to consolidate after the increase last week.
Indicator in the neutral zone, trade will be in the range of possible growth.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 19,320 - 19,970.
Technically course silver continues to consolidate after growth last week.
Indicator in the neutral zone, trade will be in the range of possible growth.
The increase in oil prices is not allowed to fall down the rate of gold.
On Monday, precious metals traded courses with decreasing, but the resumption of growth in oil prices supported precious metals market.
At the European session courses precious metals declined against the backdrop of fixation of long positions, as has been the events that could support further growth.
Also, the support of the increase in the prices of platinum sophistication, as well as reports from South Africa indicate an increase in production. Recall that the reduction in the production of platinum was due to the lack of electricity supply in the mining and processing enterprises in South Africa.
At the American bid sharp rise in oil prices lifted precious metals market from further decline. The price of light sweet oil brands rose toward $ 108.00 per barrel, the maximum for all the history. Increases in oil prices the price of gold has returned most of the lost positions.
Today, the key event at the European bid will institute ZEW data for the euro, but by the United States for a foreign trade deficit figures for January. Today, the dollar may be under pressure against the background of expectations of weak data that could support precious metals market.
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 973.70 per ounce, against $ 975.90 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 19650 per ounce, against $ 20270 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction courses precious metals traded in narrow ranges. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 972.00. Silver torgovalos at $ 19630 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 966.00 - 976.00.
Technically, the price of gold continues to consolidate after the increase last week.
Indicator in the neutral zone, trade will be in the range of possible growth.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 19,320 - 19,970.
Technically course silver continues to consolidate after growth last week.
Indicator in the neutral zone, trade will be in the range of possible growth.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Review American and Asian session 06.03.2008
Review American and Asian session 06.03.2008
The weakness of the U.S. labor market pressures dollar
On Wednesday at the session of the American dollar was again under pressure against a backdrop of weak economic data for the United States.
The main reason for the sharp fall of the dollar became ADP data on the jobs created in the private sector in February, which showed job cuts to 23000 against the forecast of economists, who had thought an increase of 10000.
In advance of the official labour market data in the United States, which will be presented on Friday, ADP data show further deterioration in the labour market. The reduction of jobs affects the unemployment rate, which in turn lowers consumption, which affects the growth of the economy. At the moment, everything points to the approaching recession in the United States.
Also not very reassuring have data on activity in the service sector, which is predominant in economic growth. An ISM index rose to 49.3 in February against 44.6 in January. Despite the increase in the index, its value is below 50.0, indicating a slowdown in the sector.
The increase in oil prices also provided on the dollar against a backdrop of the United States Department of Energy data on the reduction of oil and petroleum products. The price of light sweet oil brands rose to a new maximum mark of $ 104.80 per barrel.
As a result, the euro rate participated in the new maximum of 1.5300 against the dollar. Para pound / dollar moves toward 2.0000, while the franc and the yen traded threads against the backdrop of sales of these currencies in the cross-rates, which influenced the dynamics in the major pairs.
The pressure on the dollar continues, as data on the United States should be reminded of the distressing situation in the United States. The key to the dollar before the end of the week will be data on the labour market, where weakness in the dollar will continue to fall.
At the Asian session rates of the major currencies traded increased. At the time of writing the euro rate against the dollar negotiate with a mark of 1.5298. Pound against the dollar negotiate with the level of 1.9920. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0360. Para dollar / yen level from 103.80 CIOC.
Today, the main events will be the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England on interest rates at 15:00 and 15:45 Moscow time, respectively. Economists forecast the ECB will leave rates unchanged at 4%. The Bank of England is also expected to leave rates unchanged.
At the European trading session of the average range for EURUSD pair is between levels 1.5260 - 1.5300.
Para euro against the dollar on American CIOC session with an increase against the backdrop of weak data on the United States.
Indicator purchases in the zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range of, or continue to rise.
At the European trading session of the average range for the pair GBPUSD between levels is 1.9900 - 1.9970.
Para pound against the American dollar at the session CIOC increased against the background of weak data on the United States.
Indicator purchases in the zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range of, or continue to rise.
At the European trading session of the average range for USDCHF pair is between levels 1.0335 - 1.0380.
Para dollar / franc on American session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the area of sales, the European pair session will be traded in the range may decline.
At the European trading session of the average range for USDJPY pair is between levels 103.60 - 104.15.
Para dollar / yen on American session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range may decline.
The weakness of the U.S. labor market pressures dollar
On Wednesday at the session of the American dollar was again under pressure against a backdrop of weak economic data for the United States.
The main reason for the sharp fall of the dollar became ADP data on the jobs created in the private sector in February, which showed job cuts to 23000 against the forecast of economists, who had thought an increase of 10000.
In advance of the official labour market data in the United States, which will be presented on Friday, ADP data show further deterioration in the labour market. The reduction of jobs affects the unemployment rate, which in turn lowers consumption, which affects the growth of the economy. At the moment, everything points to the approaching recession in the United States.
Also not very reassuring have data on activity in the service sector, which is predominant in economic growth. An ISM index rose to 49.3 in February against 44.6 in January. Despite the increase in the index, its value is below 50.0, indicating a slowdown in the sector.
The increase in oil prices also provided on the dollar against a backdrop of the United States Department of Energy data on the reduction of oil and petroleum products. The price of light sweet oil brands rose to a new maximum mark of $ 104.80 per barrel.
As a result, the euro rate participated in the new maximum of 1.5300 against the dollar. Para pound / dollar moves toward 2.0000, while the franc and the yen traded threads against the backdrop of sales of these currencies in the cross-rates, which influenced the dynamics in the major pairs.
The pressure on the dollar continues, as data on the United States should be reminded of the distressing situation in the United States. The key to the dollar before the end of the week will be data on the labour market, where weakness in the dollar will continue to fall.
At the Asian session rates of the major currencies traded increased. At the time of writing the euro rate against the dollar negotiate with a mark of 1.5298. Pound against the dollar negotiate with the level of 1.9920. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0360. Para dollar / yen level from 103.80 CIOC.
Today, the main events will be the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England on interest rates at 15:00 and 15:45 Moscow time, respectively. Economists forecast the ECB will leave rates unchanged at 4%. The Bank of England is also expected to leave rates unchanged.
At the European trading session of the average range for EURUSD pair is between levels 1.5260 - 1.5300.
Para euro against the dollar on American CIOC session with an increase against the backdrop of weak data on the United States.
Indicator purchases in the zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range of, or continue to rise.
At the European trading session of the average range for the pair GBPUSD between levels is 1.9900 - 1.9970.
Para pound against the American dollar at the session CIOC increased against the background of weak data on the United States.
Indicator purchases in the zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range of, or continue to rise.
At the European trading session of the average range for USDCHF pair is between levels 1.0335 - 1.0380.
Para dollar / franc on American session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the area of sales, the European pair session will be traded in the range may decline.
At the European trading session of the average range for USDJPY pair is between levels 103.60 - 104.15.
Para dollar / yen on American session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range may decline.
07.03.08 Survey
07.03.08 Survey
The assault on the dollar continued received in the past Thursday ...
The assault on the dollar continued received in the past Thursday. This motives for the sale of American currency speculators have been few. First, continue to be high expectations or better, fears that went to the United States on Friday February report on employment (Nonfarm payrolls) will be worse than expectations, pointing out that the recession in the world's largest economy, perhaps already started.
Secondly, attention should be given to the results of the last meeting of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
In both cases, we can once again make sure that no Mervyn King, or Jean-Claude Trichet is not in a state of panic and an equally aggressive lowering of interest rates as the Fed is likely in the near future will not. And third, comments Governing FedRezerva could still undermine the dollar on FOREX. Thus, the Fed from Geithner said on Thursday that the Central Bank would be obliged to retain the interest rates at a low level at least until the situation in the financial markets do not improve. This, incidentally, confirms that the Fed may soon lower the bid to 0.75%. Overall, it is possible once again to note that the dollar was still in force sinker long-term trend.
With regard to the employment report, which will be released in the United States on Friday at 16:30 Moscow time, then, in my opinion, should not be overestimated its possible impact on the currency market and the dollar. So far, in general, the labour market in the United States is not very bad shape, pointing rather to a temporary economic downturn than at the beginning of the recession. On the other hand, if during the few months we will see a stable output indicator Nonfarm payrolls in the negative area, that is sustainable in the forthcoming reduction in the number of jobs and the economy will lose approximately 300k-500k, then it will be possible to conclude that the worst times really began .
Relatively speaking Friday following data:
Investors fear that Nonfarm payrolls will be below 0k (25k/30k forecast), which actually may be, to some extent, already been taken into account in exchange rates, that is, the decline in employment in the United States by the amount of no more than 30k market can move without great losses; on the other hand exit-level indicator on the 100k will mean even greater drop in the American stock market, curtailing carry trade positions and the reduction of the dollar;
employment sub-index within the ISM manufacturing fell in February, but a similar component in the ISM services index (service accounts for the lion's share of the U.S. economy), on the other hand, improved;
recruiting report from ADP pointed to the decline in employment in the region last month, the expected growth;
Number of primary application for unemployment benefits (Jobless claims) in the last 4-5 weeks has been on quite such a high-level (above 350k, 400k will be higher - the recession started), which itself can be seen as an argument in favour of that record 7 March will be worse than expectations.
In general, if summed up, I would have waited statistics on Friday worse analysts forecasts, in particular, the Nonfarm payrolls at 0k or negative area. In this new position on the sale of the dollar, I would not hurry to open, given his pereprodannost. I note that the expectations of better times can be as a valid reason for the correction to the recent growth pair EUR / USD, as well as lead to the restoration of no interest in the carry trade, the latter could well play.
The ECB on Thursday left interest rates without change at the level of 4%, unchanged in principle and remained communique, with the attendant press conference introduced Jean-Claude Trichet. Suffice it to say that a priority for the Central Bank continues to be the fight against inflation, rather than the problems of economic growth. Combined with the fact that FedRezerv, eager to stimulate economic growth in favour of the weak dollar, it comes as no surprise that the pair EUR / USD to the outcome of Thursday shows growth to 1.5380 from 1.5265. In cross-rates, we may also see quite such a significant strengthening of the position of the single European currency. And so it would seem, until the trend in the market with rising oil does not change to the descending or in the Eurozone would not begin wing economic problems.
This feeling that the investor environment did have some concerns that the Bank of England may move to reduce the interest rate under the regular meeting. So when this did not happen, we have seen quite such a large purchase in a pair GBP / USD, where open positions for the purchase of several easier psychologically than the EUR / USD. Strong closure on GBP / USD trading day on the outcome of the week above 1.9900 / 1.9950 may be true signal that we left 1,94-1,99 price range and direction to the area now rezistansa 2.04, which can be made in spring, when a pair EUR / USD goes to 1.55.
Adding that, following Thursday pair GBP / USD adds about 200 points, showing an increase from 1.99 to 2.01.
Discharge of risk assets, as "disservice" trend in the American stock market continues, that could mean an even greater growth rate of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in cross XXX / JPY and XXX / CHF. If we talk about the causes and factors that led to a further attack risk aversion, it can be safely on Thursday to allocate the following:
judging by the rumours, UBS and Citigroup eve in a hurry to sell their portfolios of mortgage bonds Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
Carlyle Capital Investment Fund has received margin-call on a number of its commitments and positions in the market - just remember, as the summer of 2007 caused such messages;
Thornburg Mortgage Mortgage Company is on the verge of bankruptcy and there is no buyer for its assets;
the money went again - jumped Libor rates.
Overall, the S & P500 in the coming months, I also do not support the reduction in district 1300 points. With regard to the January renewal minima, as we wrote earlier, it almost happened in the U.S. stock market.
Save risky assets again can only report on employment in the United States is better expectations this Friday. The purpose of USD / JPY 100/101, 5. While the Bank of Japan begins to "shout" in the market that such a strong yen strengthening of the position he was not satisfied, little has changed in FOREX against Asian currencies.
The assault on the dollar continued received in the past Thursday ...
The assault on the dollar continued received in the past Thursday. This motives for the sale of American currency speculators have been few. First, continue to be high expectations or better, fears that went to the United States on Friday February report on employment (Nonfarm payrolls) will be worse than expectations, pointing out that the recession in the world's largest economy, perhaps already started.
Secondly, attention should be given to the results of the last meeting of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
In both cases, we can once again make sure that no Mervyn King, or Jean-Claude Trichet is not in a state of panic and an equally aggressive lowering of interest rates as the Fed is likely in the near future will not. And third, comments Governing FedRezerva could still undermine the dollar on FOREX. Thus, the Fed from Geithner said on Thursday that the Central Bank would be obliged to retain the interest rates at a low level at least until the situation in the financial markets do not improve. This, incidentally, confirms that the Fed may soon lower the bid to 0.75%. Overall, it is possible once again to note that the dollar was still in force sinker long-term trend.
With regard to the employment report, which will be released in the United States on Friday at 16:30 Moscow time, then, in my opinion, should not be overestimated its possible impact on the currency market and the dollar. So far, in general, the labour market in the United States is not very bad shape, pointing rather to a temporary economic downturn than at the beginning of the recession. On the other hand, if during the few months we will see a stable output indicator Nonfarm payrolls in the negative area, that is sustainable in the forthcoming reduction in the number of jobs and the economy will lose approximately 300k-500k, then it will be possible to conclude that the worst times really began .
Relatively speaking Friday following data:
Investors fear that Nonfarm payrolls will be below 0k (25k/30k forecast), which actually may be, to some extent, already been taken into account in exchange rates, that is, the decline in employment in the United States by the amount of no more than 30k market can move without great losses; on the other hand exit-level indicator on the 100k will mean even greater drop in the American stock market, curtailing carry trade positions and the reduction of the dollar;
employment sub-index within the ISM manufacturing fell in February, but a similar component in the ISM services index (service accounts for the lion's share of the U.S. economy), on the other hand, improved;
recruiting report from ADP pointed to the decline in employment in the region last month, the expected growth;
Number of primary application for unemployment benefits (Jobless claims) in the last 4-5 weeks has been on quite such a high-level (above 350k, 400k will be higher - the recession started), which itself can be seen as an argument in favour of that record 7 March will be worse than expectations.
In general, if summed up, I would have waited statistics on Friday worse analysts forecasts, in particular, the Nonfarm payrolls at 0k or negative area. In this new position on the sale of the dollar, I would not hurry to open, given his pereprodannost. I note that the expectations of better times can be as a valid reason for the correction to the recent growth pair EUR / USD, as well as lead to the restoration of no interest in the carry trade, the latter could well play.
The ECB on Thursday left interest rates without change at the level of 4%, unchanged in principle and remained communique, with the attendant press conference introduced Jean-Claude Trichet. Suffice it to say that a priority for the Central Bank continues to be the fight against inflation, rather than the problems of economic growth. Combined with the fact that FedRezerv, eager to stimulate economic growth in favour of the weak dollar, it comes as no surprise that the pair EUR / USD to the outcome of Thursday shows growth to 1.5380 from 1.5265. In cross-rates, we may also see quite such a significant strengthening of the position of the single European currency. And so it would seem, until the trend in the market with rising oil does not change to the descending or in the Eurozone would not begin wing economic problems.
This feeling that the investor environment did have some concerns that the Bank of England may move to reduce the interest rate under the regular meeting. So when this did not happen, we have seen quite such a large purchase in a pair GBP / USD, where open positions for the purchase of several easier psychologically than the EUR / USD. Strong closure on GBP / USD trading day on the outcome of the week above 1.9900 / 1.9950 may be true signal that we left 1,94-1,99 price range and direction to the area now rezistansa 2.04, which can be made in spring, when a pair EUR / USD goes to 1.55.
Adding that, following Thursday pair GBP / USD adds about 200 points, showing an increase from 1.99 to 2.01.
Discharge of risk assets, as "disservice" trend in the American stock market continues, that could mean an even greater growth rate of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in cross XXX / JPY and XXX / CHF. If we talk about the causes and factors that led to a further attack risk aversion, it can be safely on Thursday to allocate the following:
judging by the rumours, UBS and Citigroup eve in a hurry to sell their portfolios of mortgage bonds Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
Carlyle Capital Investment Fund has received margin-call on a number of its commitments and positions in the market - just remember, as the summer of 2007 caused such messages;
Thornburg Mortgage Mortgage Company is on the verge of bankruptcy and there is no buyer for its assets;
the money went again - jumped Libor rates.
Overall, the S & P500 in the coming months, I also do not support the reduction in district 1300 points. With regard to the January renewal minima, as we wrote earlier, it almost happened in the U.S. stock market.
Save risky assets again can only report on employment in the United States is better expectations this Friday. The purpose of USD / JPY 100/101, 5. While the Bank of Japan begins to "shout" in the market that such a strong yen strengthening of the position he was not satisfied, little has changed in FOREX against Asian currencies.
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 07.03.2008
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 07.03.2008
Data on the labour market can decide the outcome of the U.S. week
On Thursday courses precious metals declined, despite the falling dollar and rising oil prices. The occasion could become important expectations of the labour market in the United States. Market participants perestrahovyvalis and partially fixed profit at high levels.
At the European bid for spot gold rose again to a maximum of, but the level of $ 1000.00 frightens investors, which led to the fixation of long positions. Prices of silver rose to a maximum of $ 21210, the maximum level for 27 years.
At the American bid price of gold fell sharply to $ 665.00 mark, but later returned lost. Panic selling was not justified by the situation in the cement in general, as well as oil rose and reached new highs. The price of light sweet oil brand mark rose above $ 105.50 per barrel. The dollar fell to new historical minimum 1.5394 against the euro.
Despite the fact that precious metals declined, growth may resume today after the publication of data on the labour market in the United States.
Economists forecast the number of jobs created outside of agricultural in February will be in the range of 0 to +25000. Given ADP data presented on Wednesday, which showed a reduction of jobs in the private sector at 23000, official figures may be worse than forecast. Also, the unemployment rate is projected to rise to 0.1%, which is also a strong negative for the economy of the United States in this situation.
Prior to the publication of the United States, to be held at 16:30 Moscow time courses are likely to be traded in limited ranges.
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 977.40 per ounce, against $ 985.80 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 20180 per ounce, against $ 20820 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction courses precious metals traded in narrow ranges. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 982.50. Silver torgovalos at $ 20280 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 972.00 - 993.00.
Technically, the price of gold again to the consolidated psychological level of $ 1000.00.
Indicator in the area of sales, today at the European bid sale will be held at the range, but after the publication of possible sharp fluctuations in the United States.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 20,050 - 20,680.
Technically silver adjusted rate after reaching new highs.
Indicator in the area of sales, today at the European bid sale will be held at the range, but after the publication of possible sharp fluctuations in the United States.
Data on the labour market can decide the outcome of the U.S. week
On Thursday courses precious metals declined, despite the falling dollar and rising oil prices. The occasion could become important expectations of the labour market in the United States. Market participants perestrahovyvalis and partially fixed profit at high levels.
At the European bid for spot gold rose again to a maximum of, but the level of $ 1000.00 frightens investors, which led to the fixation of long positions. Prices of silver rose to a maximum of $ 21210, the maximum level for 27 years.
At the American bid price of gold fell sharply to $ 665.00 mark, but later returned lost. Panic selling was not justified by the situation in the cement in general, as well as oil rose and reached new highs. The price of light sweet oil brand mark rose above $ 105.50 per barrel. The dollar fell to new historical minimum 1.5394 against the euro.
Despite the fact that precious metals declined, growth may resume today after the publication of data on the labour market in the United States.
Economists forecast the number of jobs created outside of agricultural in February will be in the range of 0 to +25000. Given ADP data presented on Wednesday, which showed a reduction of jobs in the private sector at 23000, official figures may be worse than forecast. Also, the unemployment rate is projected to rise to 0.1%, which is also a strong negative for the economy of the United States in this situation.
Prior to the publication of the United States, to be held at 16:30 Moscow time courses are likely to be traded in limited ranges.
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 977.40 per ounce, against $ 985.80 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 20180 per ounce, against $ 20820 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction courses precious metals traded in narrow ranges. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 982.50. Silver torgovalos at $ 20280 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 972.00 - 993.00.
Technically, the price of gold again to the consolidated psychological level of $ 1000.00.
Indicator in the area of sales, today at the European bid sale will be held at the range, but after the publication of possible sharp fluctuations in the United States.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 20,050 - 20,680.
Technically silver adjusted rate after reaching new highs.
Indicator in the area of sales, today at the European bid sale will be held at the range, but after the publication of possible sharp fluctuations in the United States.
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 06.03.2008
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 06.03.2008
Gold is preparing for the storming of $ 1000 level per ounce
On Wednesday courses lost precious metals returned eve against the backdrop of renewed growth in oil prices and falling dollar. Gold reached a new spot to the maximum at around $ 992.40 per ounce. Prices of silver rose to a maximum of $ 20810, the maximum level for 27 years.
At the American bid prices for precious metals rose sharply after weak data on regular United States. The main reason for the sharp fall of the dollar became ADP data on the jobs created in the private sector in February, which showed job cuts to 23000 against the forecast of economists, who had thought an increase of 10000.
In advance of the official labour market data in the United States, which will be presented on Friday, ADP data show further deterioration in the labour market. The reduction of jobs affects the unemployment rate, which in turn lowers consumption, which affects the growth of the economy. At the moment, everything points to the approaching recession in the United States.
Also not very reassuring have data on activity in the service sector, which is predominant in economic growth. An ISM index rose to 49.3 in February against 44.6 in January. Despite the increase in the index, its value is below 50.0, indicating a slowdown in the sector.
The increase in oil prices also supported precious metals market data on the background of the Ministry of Energy of the United States on the reduction of oil and petroleum products. The price of light sweet oil brand mark rose above $ 104.50 per barrel.
Assumptions that the fall in the price of gold on Tuesday confirmed unwarranted.
Today, the main events will be the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England on interest rates. Also, the United States will be represented on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for February.
Ascending dynamics of the market today, precious metals may continue if the Central Bank will leave rates unchanged, but data for the United States to continue to show weakness ..
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 986.70 per ounce, against $ 964.70 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 20730 per ounce, against $ 19560 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction courses precious metals traded in narrow ranges. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 985.00. Silver torgovalos at $ 20720 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 983.00 - 993.00.
Technically, the price of gold continued to rise after a day of correction against the backdrop of falling dollar.
Indicator purchases in the zone, trade will be held today, depending on the published data, ascending trend prevails.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 20,470 - 20,820.
Technically, the growth rate of silver continued after a day of correction against the backdrop of falling dollar.
Indicator purchases in the zone, trade will be held today, depending on the published data, ascending trend prevails.
Gold is preparing for the storming of $ 1000 level per ounce
On Wednesday courses lost precious metals returned eve against the backdrop of renewed growth in oil prices and falling dollar. Gold reached a new spot to the maximum at around $ 992.40 per ounce. Prices of silver rose to a maximum of $ 20810, the maximum level for 27 years.
At the American bid prices for precious metals rose sharply after weak data on regular United States. The main reason for the sharp fall of the dollar became ADP data on the jobs created in the private sector in February, which showed job cuts to 23000 against the forecast of economists, who had thought an increase of 10000.
In advance of the official labour market data in the United States, which will be presented on Friday, ADP data show further deterioration in the labour market. The reduction of jobs affects the unemployment rate, which in turn lowers consumption, which affects the growth of the economy. At the moment, everything points to the approaching recession in the United States.
Also not very reassuring have data on activity in the service sector, which is predominant in economic growth. An ISM index rose to 49.3 in February against 44.6 in January. Despite the increase in the index, its value is below 50.0, indicating a slowdown in the sector.
The increase in oil prices also supported precious metals market data on the background of the Ministry of Energy of the United States on the reduction of oil and petroleum products. The price of light sweet oil brand mark rose above $ 104.50 per barrel.
Assumptions that the fall in the price of gold on Tuesday confirmed unwarranted.
Today, the main events will be the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England on interest rates. Also, the United States will be represented on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for February.
Ascending dynamics of the market today, precious metals may continue if the Central Bank will leave rates unchanged, but data for the United States to continue to show weakness ..
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 986.70 per ounce, against $ 964.70 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 20730 per ounce, against $ 19560 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction courses precious metals traded in narrow ranges. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 985.00. Silver torgovalos at $ 20720 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 983.00 - 993.00.
Technically, the price of gold continued to rise after a day of correction against the backdrop of falling dollar.
Indicator purchases in the zone, trade will be held today, depending on the published data, ascending trend prevails.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 20,470 - 20,820.
Technically, the growth rate of silver continued after a day of correction against the backdrop of falling dollar.
Indicator purchases in the zone, trade will be held today, depending on the published data, ascending trend prevails.
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 06.03.2008
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 06.03.2008
Gold is preparing for the storming of $ 1000 level per ounce
On Wednesday courses lost precious metals returned eve against the backdrop of renewed growth in oil prices and falling dollar. Gold reached a new spot to the maximum at around $ 992.40 per ounce. Prices of silver rose to a maximum of $ 20810, the maximum level for 27 years.
At the American bid prices for precious metals rose sharply after weak data on regular United States. The main reason for the sharp fall of the dollar became ADP data on the jobs created in the private sector in February, which showed job cuts to 23000 against the forecast of economists, who had thought an increase of 10000.
In advance of the official labour market data in the United States, which will be presented on Friday, ADP data show further deterioration in the labour market. The reduction of jobs affects the unemployment rate, which in turn lowers consumption, which affects the growth of the economy. At the moment, everything points to the approaching recession in the United States.
Also not very reassuring have data on activity in the service sector, which is predominant in economic growth. An ISM index rose to 49.3 in February against 44.6 in January. Despite the increase in the index, its value is below 50.0, indicating a slowdown in the sector.
The increase in oil prices also supported precious metals market data on the background of the Ministry of Energy of the United States on the reduction of oil and petroleum products. The price of light sweet oil brand mark rose above $ 104.50 per barrel.
Assumptions that the fall in the price of gold on Tuesday confirmed unwarranted.
Today, the main events will be the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England on interest rates. Also, the United States will be represented on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for February.
Ascending dynamics of the market today, precious metals may continue if the Central Bank will leave rates unchanged, but data for the United States to continue to show weakness ..
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 986.70 per ounce, against $ 964.70 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 20730 per ounce, against $ 19560 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction courses precious metals traded in narrow ranges. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 985.00. Silver torgovalos at $ 20720 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 983.00 - 993.00.
Technically, the price of gold continued to rise after a day of correction against the backdrop of falling dollar.
Indicator purchases in the zone, trade will be held today, depending on the published data, ascending trend prevails.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 20,470 - 20,820.
Technically, the growth rate of silver continued after a day of correction against the backdrop of falling dollar.
Indicator purchases in the zone, trade will be held today, depending on the published data, ascending trend prevails.
Gold is preparing for the storming of $ 1000 level per ounce
On Wednesday courses lost precious metals returned eve against the backdrop of renewed growth in oil prices and falling dollar. Gold reached a new spot to the maximum at around $ 992.40 per ounce. Prices of silver rose to a maximum of $ 20810, the maximum level for 27 years.
At the American bid prices for precious metals rose sharply after weak data on regular United States. The main reason for the sharp fall of the dollar became ADP data on the jobs created in the private sector in February, which showed job cuts to 23000 against the forecast of economists, who had thought an increase of 10000.
In advance of the official labour market data in the United States, which will be presented on Friday, ADP data show further deterioration in the labour market. The reduction of jobs affects the unemployment rate, which in turn lowers consumption, which affects the growth of the economy. At the moment, everything points to the approaching recession in the United States.
Also not very reassuring have data on activity in the service sector, which is predominant in economic growth. An ISM index rose to 49.3 in February against 44.6 in January. Despite the increase in the index, its value is below 50.0, indicating a slowdown in the sector.
The increase in oil prices also supported precious metals market data on the background of the Ministry of Energy of the United States on the reduction of oil and petroleum products. The price of light sweet oil brand mark rose above $ 104.50 per barrel.
Assumptions that the fall in the price of gold on Tuesday confirmed unwarranted.
Today, the main events will be the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England on interest rates. Also, the United States will be represented on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for February.
Ascending dynamics of the market today, precious metals may continue if the Central Bank will leave rates unchanged, but data for the United States to continue to show weakness ..
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 986.70 per ounce, against $ 964.70 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 20730 per ounce, against $ 19560 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction courses precious metals traded in narrow ranges. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 985.00. Silver torgovalos at $ 20720 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 983.00 - 993.00.
Technically, the price of gold continued to rise after a day of correction against the backdrop of falling dollar.
Indicator purchases in the zone, trade will be held today, depending on the published data, ascending trend prevails.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 20,470 - 20,820.
Technically, the growth rate of silver continued after a day of correction against the backdrop of falling dollar.
Indicator purchases in the zone, trade will be held today, depending on the published data, ascending trend prevails.
05.03.08. Market pending the outcome of tomorrow's ECB and BoE
05.03.08. Market pending the outcome of tomorrow's ECB and BoE
In anticipation of the outcome of tomorrow's ECB and the Bank of England on interest rates on the market has a slight lull. Reaction to reach today amerikanskme data was not in favor of the dollar, which is falling against the Euro and the Yen following the release of data on the number of jobs in the private sector, while ignoring positive data on productivity. Apparently, all expect that the data goes today at 19 GMT Bezhevoy Books will be shocking to the American economy. The technical picture has not changed dramatically, but the new maximum for the euro is possible.
Movement Euro up on Monday reached the target level model correction 2-3 (161.8% at 1.5274), the new record against the dollar maximums seen in the target level model expansion 1-2-3 (161.8% na1.5390 also), while indicators , in particular, day RSI on our schedule, obviously perekuleny. Prices remain above the perforated top line channel A-K-1 on the afternoon schedule in such about it today in the early afternoon. Now it's possible continued upward movement to a new maximum of.
Pound adjust upward movement cd and began to grow against the dollar, following the movements of the Euro. Base for a possible upward movement might serve as a perforated line of the triangle, which Pound relied throughout its recent correction. True, the decline in the graph allows to build a new trend line resistance ad. We are still measurable objectives approach to movement upward correction as a drop HL. The nearest of these goals - 2.0030 at the level of 38.2% correction. As support has remained a local minimum of 1.9765.
Yen was trying to stay above the levels reached a three-year minimum. These goals on the afternoon schedule downward motion obtained by measuring the prior correction: 1-2 in a global picture of the current technical sense, and ab in the local sense. Target could not keep the price of 104.30 and now is a classic resistance. Prices fell on the level of support promezhutochnyuyu 361.8% correction 102.70. The immediate objective can be considered below 102.20. Below is a minimum level of 101.85 and 101.65. It can not be excluded and downs at the 100.85 level.
Breaks down Franc zone figures 1.0500 (161.8% correction level ab, which in our measurements have long been regarded as a source of downward movement), and tried otkorrektirovatsya up, but this attempt did not appear to have succeeded. Para decreases, and the following global objective of this model - the level of 261.8% at 1.0120. The small rise slightly to defuse allowed zashkalivshie indicators, and now no technical restrictions to traffic down to new record levels.
"CAD" concluded the upward correction today is declining, despite yesterday's very significant lowering of rates of the Bank of Canada. Apparently, the cases in the United States are seen investors so poor that even this effect will not help pair to return at least parity in the zone.
"Australian" got out of the canal, which was raised up from mid-January, by correcting his last movement upwards. Surrounding day support remain in the zone of 0.9240/65. If they will be overcome, possibly in the reduction zone 0.91-second figure.
In anticipation of the outcome of tomorrow's ECB and the Bank of England on interest rates on the market has a slight lull. Reaction to reach today amerikanskme data was not in favor of the dollar, which is falling against the Euro and the Yen following the release of data on the number of jobs in the private sector, while ignoring positive data on productivity. Apparently, all expect that the data goes today at 19 GMT Bezhevoy Books will be shocking to the American economy. The technical picture has not changed dramatically, but the new maximum for the euro is possible.
Movement Euro up on Monday reached the target level model correction 2-3 (161.8% at 1.5274), the new record against the dollar maximums seen in the target level model expansion 1-2-3 (161.8% na1.5390 also), while indicators , in particular, day RSI on our schedule, obviously perekuleny. Prices remain above the perforated top line channel A-K-1 on the afternoon schedule in such about it today in the early afternoon. Now it's possible continued upward movement to a new maximum of.
Pound adjust upward movement cd and began to grow against the dollar, following the movements of the Euro. Base for a possible upward movement might serve as a perforated line of the triangle, which Pound relied throughout its recent correction. True, the decline in the graph allows to build a new trend line resistance ad. We are still measurable objectives approach to movement upward correction as a drop HL. The nearest of these goals - 2.0030 at the level of 38.2% correction. As support has remained a local minimum of 1.9765.
Yen was trying to stay above the levels reached a three-year minimum. These goals on the afternoon schedule downward motion obtained by measuring the prior correction: 1-2 in a global picture of the current technical sense, and ab in the local sense. Target could not keep the price of 104.30 and now is a classic resistance. Prices fell on the level of support promezhutochnyuyu 361.8% correction 102.70. The immediate objective can be considered below 102.20. Below is a minimum level of 101.85 and 101.65. It can not be excluded and downs at the 100.85 level.
Breaks down Franc zone figures 1.0500 (161.8% correction level ab, which in our measurements have long been regarded as a source of downward movement), and tried otkorrektirovatsya up, but this attempt did not appear to have succeeded. Para decreases, and the following global objective of this model - the level of 261.8% at 1.0120. The small rise slightly to defuse allowed zashkalivshie indicators, and now no technical restrictions to traffic down to new record levels.
"CAD" concluded the upward correction today is declining, despite yesterday's very significant lowering of rates of the Bank of Canada. Apparently, the cases in the United States are seen investors so poor that even this effect will not help pair to return at least parity in the zone.
"Australian" got out of the canal, which was raised up from mid-January, by correcting his last movement upwards. Surrounding day support remain in the zone of 0.9240/65. If they will be overcome, possibly in the reduction zone 0.91-second figure.
Overview of the European session 05.03.2008
Overview of the European session 05.03.2008
Currencies traded unevenly in anticipation of the important data on the United States.
FOREX:
At the European bid rates of the major currencies traded against the improving dollar.
Support for the euro exchange rate provided data on activity in the services sector in the Eurozone, the corresponding index in February was 52.3 against 50.6 in January. The index coincided with the preliminary data.
Accelerating growth in activity in this area is good news in anticipation of tomorrow's decision on interest rates and the European Central Bank. The data helped the euro exchange rate return lost in early European trades.
Also supporting the euro exchange rate had data on retail sales in the euro. Retail sales in January rose by 0.4%, after falling to 0.1% in January. At the same time the annual figure has fallen short of projections and showed a decrease of 0.1%, while the expected increase of 0.2%. However, the annual rate for December was revised for the better with -1,8% to -2%.
Pound declined more significantly against the backdrop of sales in the cross-rates, as well as expectations of weak data on the UK. Despite this, the course has returned part of the lost position after the publication of unexpectedly strong data on activity in the service sector in Britain, which reduced the likelihood that the Bank of England will reduce interest rates.
Procurement managers index for the services sector rose unexpectedly in February and was 54.0 against 52.5 in January. Economists forecast the index would fall to 52.0, and to show a slowdown in this area. However, the data have not lived pessimistic forecasts and supported the British currency.
Together with data on the increase in activity in the manufacturing sector, which were submitted on Monday, the data will be good news for the Bank of England, who read the decision tomorrow on the interest rate.
At the time of writing steam euro / dollar CIOC have in the region of 1.5190. Para pound / dollar level of 1.9785 at the CIOC. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0400. Para dollar / yen level from 103.85 CIOC.
Today at the American session 18:15 Moscow time ADP is expected to publish data on the number of jobs in the private sector for February. According to the forecasts of economists, it is expected that the number of jobs will be 10000 to 126000 in January. These rarely coincide with the official data on jobs, but in recent times the market reaction to the data is strong.
At 18:00 Moscow time will be submitted no less important index of business activity in the services sector for February, it is expected that the index rose, but remained below 50,0, indicating a slowdown in the service sector, which is the dominant economy in the United States. At 22:00 Moscow time the Fed will report "Beige Book" as the U.S. economy.
At the American average trading session on the range is between EURUSD pair levels 1.5150 - 1.5210.
Para euro against the dollar in the European session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the American pair session will be traded in a range of possible growth in the weak data on the United States.
At the American middle session trading range for pair GBPUSD between levels is 1.9720 - 1.9810.
Para pound against the dollar in the European session CIOC with decreasing.
Indicator purchases in the zone, the American pair session will be traded in a range of possible growth in the weak data on the United States.
At the session of the average American shopping for a pair USDCHF range between levels is 1.0370 - 1.0430.
Para dollar / franc in the European session CIOC improving.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the American pair session will be traded in the range may decline if weak data on the United States.
At the American average trading session on the range is between the USDJPY pair levels 103.25 - 103.95.
Para dollar / yen in the European session CIOC improving.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the American pair session will be traded in the range may decline if weak data on the United States.
Currencies traded unevenly in anticipation of the important data on the United States.
FOREX:
At the European bid rates of the major currencies traded against the improving dollar.
Support for the euro exchange rate provided data on activity in the services sector in the Eurozone, the corresponding index in February was 52.3 against 50.6 in January. The index coincided with the preliminary data.
Accelerating growth in activity in this area is good news in anticipation of tomorrow's decision on interest rates and the European Central Bank. The data helped the euro exchange rate return lost in early European trades.
Also supporting the euro exchange rate had data on retail sales in the euro. Retail sales in January rose by 0.4%, after falling to 0.1% in January. At the same time the annual figure has fallen short of projections and showed a decrease of 0.1%, while the expected increase of 0.2%. However, the annual rate for December was revised for the better with -1,8% to -2%.
Pound declined more significantly against the backdrop of sales in the cross-rates, as well as expectations of weak data on the UK. Despite this, the course has returned part of the lost position after the publication of unexpectedly strong data on activity in the service sector in Britain, which reduced the likelihood that the Bank of England will reduce interest rates.
Procurement managers index for the services sector rose unexpectedly in February and was 54.0 against 52.5 in January. Economists forecast the index would fall to 52.0, and to show a slowdown in this area. However, the data have not lived pessimistic forecasts and supported the British currency.
Together with data on the increase in activity in the manufacturing sector, which were submitted on Monday, the data will be good news for the Bank of England, who read the decision tomorrow on the interest rate.
At the time of writing steam euro / dollar CIOC have in the region of 1.5190. Para pound / dollar level of 1.9785 at the CIOC. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0400. Para dollar / yen level from 103.85 CIOC.
Today at the American session 18:15 Moscow time ADP is expected to publish data on the number of jobs in the private sector for February. According to the forecasts of economists, it is expected that the number of jobs will be 10000 to 126000 in January. These rarely coincide with the official data on jobs, but in recent times the market reaction to the data is strong.
At 18:00 Moscow time will be submitted no less important index of business activity in the services sector for February, it is expected that the index rose, but remained below 50,0, indicating a slowdown in the service sector, which is the dominant economy in the United States. At 22:00 Moscow time the Fed will report "Beige Book" as the U.S. economy.
At the American average trading session on the range is between EURUSD pair levels 1.5150 - 1.5210.
Para euro against the dollar in the European session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the American pair session will be traded in a range of possible growth in the weak data on the United States.
At the American middle session trading range for pair GBPUSD between levels is 1.9720 - 1.9810.
Para pound against the dollar in the European session CIOC with decreasing.
Indicator purchases in the zone, the American pair session will be traded in a range of possible growth in the weak data on the United States.
At the session of the average American shopping for a pair USDCHF range between levels is 1.0370 - 1.0430.
Para dollar / franc in the European session CIOC improving.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the American pair session will be traded in the range may decline if weak data on the United States.
At the American average trading session on the range is between the USDJPY pair levels 103.25 - 103.95.
Para dollar / yen in the European session CIOC improving.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the American pair session will be traded in the range may decline if weak data on the United States.
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 05.03.2008
Analysis of the metals market (GOLD) on 05.03.2008
Gold came under came close to a record of $ 1000 marks per ounce.
On Tuesday courses precious metals fell sharply against the backdrop of lower oil prices below $ 100.00, which triggered a record of long positions in precious metals.
At the European bid price of gold in the spot negotiate with improved from recent highs. Silver torgovalos threads in a narrow range. In the absence of major economic data for the United States trades were weak, and nothing presaged that the players will move to action.
In the second half of the North American session, the price of oil fell sharply, which triggered a record of profits in the market of precious metals. Also, the cause of lower prices can be regarded as psychological aspects. When approaching gold prices to the level of $ 1000.00 per ounce on the market begins strife, which increases volatility. Falling prices have become excessive, but not so much to break down a rising trend.
Despite the decline in the prices of gold and silver, platinum prices continue to go up, a sign that the purchasing power.
Nastorazhivaet fact that the dollar negotiate during the day in a limited range and are not able to ask directions in the market and precious metals market participants are likely overly reacted to the oil market.
You can also take into account that the likely market participants recorded a profit before meetings of the Central Bank on Thursday and publishing data on the labour market in the United States.
Today, the main business activity data will be in service in Europe, the UK and the USA. Also ADP data on the number of jobs in the private sector could be severely label market, as well as in recent times on the data response stronger than the official data on the labour market, which will be presented on Friday. There will also be presented with a report from the Fed "Beige Book".
The dynamics of the market today, precious metals will depend on economic data submitted.
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 966.60 per ounce, against $ 981.70 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 19770 per ounce, against $ 20190 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction traded precious metals courses with decreasing. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 964.90. Silver torgovalos at $ 19580 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 961.00 - 969.00.
Technically, the price of gold fell sharply in the framework of correction against the backdrop of fixing profits.
Indicator in the area of sales, commerce will be held today, according to published data.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 19,480 - 19,900.
Technically course silver fell sharply in the framework of correction against the backdrop of fixing profits.
Indicator in the area of sales, commerce will be held today, according to published data.
Gold came under came close to a record of $ 1000 marks per ounce.
On Tuesday courses precious metals fell sharply against the backdrop of lower oil prices below $ 100.00, which triggered a record of long positions in precious metals.
At the European bid price of gold in the spot negotiate with improved from recent highs. Silver torgovalos threads in a narrow range. In the absence of major economic data for the United States trades were weak, and nothing presaged that the players will move to action.
In the second half of the North American session, the price of oil fell sharply, which triggered a record of profits in the market of precious metals. Also, the cause of lower prices can be regarded as psychological aspects. When approaching gold prices to the level of $ 1000.00 per ounce on the market begins strife, which increases volatility. Falling prices have become excessive, but not so much to break down a rising trend.
Despite the decline in the prices of gold and silver, platinum prices continue to go up, a sign that the purchasing power.
Nastorazhivaet fact that the dollar negotiate during the day in a limited range and are not able to ask directions in the market and precious metals market participants are likely overly reacted to the oil market.
You can also take into account that the likely market participants recorded a profit before meetings of the Central Bank on Thursday and publishing data on the labour market in the United States.
Today, the main business activity data will be in service in Europe, the UK and the USA. Also ADP data on the number of jobs in the private sector could be severely label market, as well as in recent times on the data response stronger than the official data on the labour market, which will be presented on Friday. There will also be presented with a report from the Fed "Beige Book".
The dynamics of the market today, precious metals will depend on economic data submitted.
By 03.00 Moscow time spot price of gold was $ 966.60 per ounce, against $ 981.70 at the beginning of trades in Europe. Spot price of silver was $ 19770 per ounce, against $ 20190 at the beginning of trades in Europe.
The morning auction traded precious metals courses with decreasing. Spot price of gold to $ 8.00 Moscow time stood at 964.90. Silver torgovalos at $ 19580 per ounce.
To date, the average trading range for gold is between levels 961.00 - 969.00.
Technically, the price of gold fell sharply in the framework of correction against the backdrop of fixing profits.
Indicator in the area of sales, commerce will be held today, according to published data.
To date, the average trading range of between levels of silver is 19,480 - 19,900.
Technically course silver fell sharply in the framework of correction against the backdrop of fixing profits.
Indicator in the area of sales, commerce will be held today, according to published data.
Review American and Asian session 05.03.2008
Review American and Asian session 05.03.2008
Currency market in anticipation of important data on the United States.
FOREX:
On Tuesday at the session of the American dollar bargained in limited ranges, in the absence of important economic data for the United States.
Courses euro and the pound traded threads, while the franc and the yen repeat the dynamics of American stock indexes.
Speeches of American officials did not affect the dynamics of bidding. However, some statements attract attention. - Dallas Fed President Fischer expressed his concern that lower interest rates could have negative consequences, as well as inflation would not be restrained, when the economy begins to recovery. In such an eventuality the Fed will be in a difficult situation.
Pressure on the dollar this week may continue, as well as data on the United States may reiterate the situation in the United States. The key to the dollar before the end of the week will be data on the labour market, where weakness in the dollar will continue to fall.
At the Asian session rates of the major currencies traded in narrow ranges. At the time of writing the euro rate against the dollar negotiate with a mark of 1.5195. Pound against the dollar negotiate with the level of 1.9850. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0390. Para dollar / yen level from 103.45 CIOC.
At the European session at 12:00 and 12:30 Moscow time will be published on business activity in the service sector for the month of February in Europe and the UK. Later, at 13:00 Moscow time will be submitted data on retail sales in January in the Eurozone. According to the forecasts of economists activity in the service sector improved in the Eurozone, and in Britain fell slightly. Sales are projected to have increased in the Eurozone January compared with December, but the annual growth slowed.
Against the backdrop of expectations of mixed data auction will be held threads. Also on today's dollars are more important for market participants, in connection with the movement aimed at European auction might not.
At the European trading session of the average range for EURUSD pair is between levels 1.5180 - 1.5245.
Para euro against the dollar on American session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in a range of possible growth.
At the European trading session of the average range for the pair GBPUSD between levels is 1.9810 - 1.9885.
Para pound against the American dollar at the session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in a range of possible growth.
At the European trading session of the average range for USDCHF pair is between levels 1.0350 - 1.0400.
Para dollar / franc on American session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range may decline.
At the European trading session of the average range for USDJPY pair is between levels 103.00 - 103.60. Para dollar / yen on American session CIOC threads. Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range may decline.
Currency market in anticipation of important data on the United States.
FOREX:
On Tuesday at the session of the American dollar bargained in limited ranges, in the absence of important economic data for the United States.
Courses euro and the pound traded threads, while the franc and the yen repeat the dynamics of American stock indexes.
Speeches of American officials did not affect the dynamics of bidding. However, some statements attract attention. - Dallas Fed President Fischer expressed his concern that lower interest rates could have negative consequences, as well as inflation would not be restrained, when the economy begins to recovery. In such an eventuality the Fed will be in a difficult situation.
Pressure on the dollar this week may continue, as well as data on the United States may reiterate the situation in the United States. The key to the dollar before the end of the week will be data on the labour market, where weakness in the dollar will continue to fall.
At the Asian session rates of the major currencies traded in narrow ranges. At the time of writing the euro rate against the dollar negotiate with a mark of 1.5195. Pound against the dollar negotiate with the level of 1.9850. Para dollar / CIOC franc at around 1.0390. Para dollar / yen level from 103.45 CIOC.
At the European session at 12:00 and 12:30 Moscow time will be published on business activity in the service sector for the month of February in Europe and the UK. Later, at 13:00 Moscow time will be submitted data on retail sales in January in the Eurozone. According to the forecasts of economists activity in the service sector improved in the Eurozone, and in Britain fell slightly. Sales are projected to have increased in the Eurozone January compared with December, but the annual growth slowed.
Against the backdrop of expectations of mixed data auction will be held threads. Also on today's dollars are more important for market participants, in connection with the movement aimed at European auction might not.
At the European trading session of the average range for EURUSD pair is between levels 1.5180 - 1.5245.
Para euro against the dollar on American session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in a range of possible growth.
At the European trading session of the average range for the pair GBPUSD between levels is 1.9810 - 1.9885.
Para pound against the American dollar at the session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in a range of possible growth.
At the European trading session of the average range for USDCHF pair is between levels 1.0350 - 1.0400.
Para dollar / franc on American session CIOC threads.
Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range may decline.
At the European trading session of the average range for USDJPY pair is between levels 103.00 - 103.60. Para dollar / yen on American session CIOC threads. Indicator in the neutral zone, the European pair session will be traded in the range may decline.
05.03.08 Survey
05.03.08 Survey
4 March in the United States does not go any significant macroeconomic data ...
4 March in the United States does not go any significant macroeconomic data, so speculators and investors' attention was drawn to the statement of Governors FedRezerva. Especially in this regard remembered Chairman of the Central USA Ben Bernanke, who has once again highlighted the current problems in the world's largest economy, in particular the housing market and mortgage lending in the sector. Investors seem to be alerted several chapters concern Fed current state of the United States economy, which has led to a decline in the stock market the region. Also worth noting and presentation manager FedRezerva Donald Kohn, who lamented not the best conditions at the moment for banks, which could mean a reduction in the volume of consumer cancellation of the industry, and lower profit growth from finorganizatsy.
Pressure on commodity currencies in the middle of this week is likely to worsen. Suffice it has been that on Tuesday the price of raw materials (oil, metals) fell by the maximum value in the past six weeks. More attention should be paid to the fact that, along with commodity platforms tydne and equity markets, that is, on all fronts on Tuesday, we have seen further dumping of risk assets and the elimination of positions carry trade that could not hit on the position of such high rates, as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, which are most used to playing on the difference in interest rates.
In the case of the Australian dollar, we still talk about the event March 4 meeting of the Central Bank of Australia, which, as expected, raised the interest rate to 0.25% to 7.25%. In principle, it has to create some profit fixation in a pair AUD / USD, which in the previous few weeks have demonstrated quite the same substantial growth.
The reason for the weakening of the Australian currency positions eventually became steytment, who presented the Central Bank of Australia, there are clear indication of the fact that the increased markedly in recent times, interest rates already have led to the emergence of signs that consumers and businesses have begun to gradually reduce costs . That kind of wording may well be interpreted as a market that the cycle of tightening monetary policy in the region has come to its logical conclusion, which may cause an even greater appreciation of the AUD.
For the Canadian dollar, as expected, a significant negative is that the interest rate in the region on Tuesday was not lowered to 0.25%, and immediately to 0.5% to 3.5%. After such a radical step by the Bank of Canada seems to be saying that in kratkosrochke we can see another round of reducing the rate of the Canadian dollar before the start of this currency adjusted to the recent fall. As in the case of the Australian currency, here too much attention should be paid to steytmentu, who presented the Central Bank. The document states that the problems in the United States will have a significant impact on the world economy, as well as there are clear signals that the Bank of Canada will continue to continue on the path of monetary policy to mitigate, that is, perhaps reducing interest bid in the region before the end of the year to at least 3%.
EUR / CAD - if not statements of representatives of the ECB, it may already be on Tuesday reached the level of 1.52, and so it had to rely on Wednesday. Recall that on the basis of the past couple days has demonstrated the growth of 1.5030 to 1.5130.
CAD / JPY - here we expect to continue to support the achievement of 102, which, in our view, can only hinder the unwillingness of the world's stock markets continue to fall on Wednesday.
Regarding the pair USD, CAD, here on Tuesday an increase from 0.9880 to 0.9950 in the coming do not exclude recovery rate to 1.0000, 1.1000.
If we look at the data on GDP for the euro 4 kv07, published on Tuesday, it seems that anything interesting they not, given that statistics was actually within expectations. Thus, the figure was 0.4% for / and to 2.2% g / g is forecast to 0.4% / 2.3%, and to the g / d. But if one looks closely at the above-mentioned report, then one can not help but notice that there are exports slowed considerably in the region, must continue to draw attention to the fact that the level of consumer spending, which account for up to 60%, fell by 0.1%, which mean weak domestic consumption, and potentially lower growth rate euro. Overall, it comes as no surprise that, after the publication of GDP in the European market shares, we have seen a wave of some sales.
Is not ruled out that the statistics has become something even signal to action for European officials. Before and Finance Minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, and French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, and the head of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet said that they were somewhat concerned about the weakness of the American currency and, in general, the United States would make sense to think about the dollar strong. In short, the recent volatility in FOREX and the strong growth that we have seen in a pair EUR / USD, it is not satisfied with the ECB. If so, that on Thursday under regular meeting of the Central Trichet may again point to a substantially increased in recent downward risks for the European economy, or make it clear that the expensive road euro concerned him. For speculators, other things being equal, it might be a pretext to reduce the rate of correctional EUR / USD 1.50 in the area of support, and ultimately can be a good opportunity to open a new "long" positions on the currency pair.
After Tuesday, however, rate EUR / USD has changed very little further consolidated in the price range 1.5160 / 1.5240. Indeed way out of this corridor may indicate the direction of the further appreciation of the euro.
Add that some negative for the euro in the middle of this week - it is also a decline in oil prices.
A significant positive for the Swiss franc on Tuesday became not only the dumping of risk assets and the next flight to quality investors, but also in Switzerland published data on GDP growth in the region of 4 kv07 who were noticeably better than expectations. According to published statistics for the period from October to December, GDP growth accelerated to the maximum of Switzerland in the past two years against a backdrop of escalating costs for households and businesses, representing 1% against the projected 0,5% (0,9% of the previous value).
Significantly more and the fact that inflation in Switzerland has been at the level of 2.4% in February, which corresponds to a maximum chetyrnadtsatiletnemu and could well mean a further rise in interest rates in the region. As a result, the cross EUR / CHF decline we have seen from 1.5840 to 1.5790, and the couple GBP / CHF falling to 2.0610. Due to the fact that the franc now looks very overbought, from any trading recommendations on these cross-rates, we have refrained.
4 March in the United States does not go any significant macroeconomic data ...
4 March in the United States does not go any significant macroeconomic data, so speculators and investors' attention was drawn to the statement of Governors FedRezerva. Especially in this regard remembered Chairman of the Central USA Ben Bernanke, who has once again highlighted the current problems in the world's largest economy, in particular the housing market and mortgage lending in the sector. Investors seem to be alerted several chapters concern Fed current state of the United States economy, which has led to a decline in the stock market the region. Also worth noting and presentation manager FedRezerva Donald Kohn, who lamented not the best conditions at the moment for banks, which could mean a reduction in the volume of consumer cancellation of the industry, and lower profit growth from finorganizatsy.
Pressure on commodity currencies in the middle of this week is likely to worsen. Suffice it has been that on Tuesday the price of raw materials (oil, metals) fell by the maximum value in the past six weeks. More attention should be paid to the fact that, along with commodity platforms tydne and equity markets, that is, on all fronts on Tuesday, we have seen further dumping of risk assets and the elimination of positions carry trade that could not hit on the position of such high rates, as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, which are most used to playing on the difference in interest rates.
In the case of the Australian dollar, we still talk about the event March 4 meeting of the Central Bank of Australia, which, as expected, raised the interest rate to 0.25% to 7.25%. In principle, it has to create some profit fixation in a pair AUD / USD, which in the previous few weeks have demonstrated quite the same substantial growth.
The reason for the weakening of the Australian currency positions eventually became steytment, who presented the Central Bank of Australia, there are clear indication of the fact that the increased markedly in recent times, interest rates already have led to the emergence of signs that consumers and businesses have begun to gradually reduce costs . That kind of wording may well be interpreted as a market that the cycle of tightening monetary policy in the region has come to its logical conclusion, which may cause an even greater appreciation of the AUD.
For the Canadian dollar, as expected, a significant negative is that the interest rate in the region on Tuesday was not lowered to 0.25%, and immediately to 0.5% to 3.5%. After such a radical step by the Bank of Canada seems to be saying that in kratkosrochke we can see another round of reducing the rate of the Canadian dollar before the start of this currency adjusted to the recent fall. As in the case of the Australian currency, here too much attention should be paid to steytmentu, who presented the Central Bank. The document states that the problems in the United States will have a significant impact on the world economy, as well as there are clear signals that the Bank of Canada will continue to continue on the path of monetary policy to mitigate, that is, perhaps reducing interest bid in the region before the end of the year to at least 3%.
EUR / CAD - if not statements of representatives of the ECB, it may already be on Tuesday reached the level of 1.52, and so it had to rely on Wednesday. Recall that on the basis of the past couple days has demonstrated the growth of 1.5030 to 1.5130.
CAD / JPY - here we expect to continue to support the achievement of 102, which, in our view, can only hinder the unwillingness of the world's stock markets continue to fall on Wednesday.
Regarding the pair USD, CAD, here on Tuesday an increase from 0.9880 to 0.9950 in the coming do not exclude recovery rate to 1.0000, 1.1000.
If we look at the data on GDP for the euro 4 kv07, published on Tuesday, it seems that anything interesting they not, given that statistics was actually within expectations. Thus, the figure was 0.4% for / and to 2.2% g / g is forecast to 0.4% / 2.3%, and to the g / d. But if one looks closely at the above-mentioned report, then one can not help but notice that there are exports slowed considerably in the region, must continue to draw attention to the fact that the level of consumer spending, which account for up to 60%, fell by 0.1%, which mean weak domestic consumption, and potentially lower growth rate euro. Overall, it comes as no surprise that, after the publication of GDP in the European market shares, we have seen a wave of some sales.
Is not ruled out that the statistics has become something even signal to action for European officials. Before and Finance Minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, and French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, and the head of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet said that they were somewhat concerned about the weakness of the American currency and, in general, the United States would make sense to think about the dollar strong. In short, the recent volatility in FOREX and the strong growth that we have seen in a pair EUR / USD, it is not satisfied with the ECB. If so, that on Thursday under regular meeting of the Central Trichet may again point to a substantially increased in recent downward risks for the European economy, or make it clear that the expensive road euro concerned him. For speculators, other things being equal, it might be a pretext to reduce the rate of correctional EUR / USD 1.50 in the area of support, and ultimately can be a good opportunity to open a new "long" positions on the currency pair.
After Tuesday, however, rate EUR / USD has changed very little further consolidated in the price range 1.5160 / 1.5240. Indeed way out of this corridor may indicate the direction of the further appreciation of the euro.
Add that some negative for the euro in the middle of this week - it is also a decline in oil prices.
A significant positive for the Swiss franc on Tuesday became not only the dumping of risk assets and the next flight to quality investors, but also in Switzerland published data on GDP growth in the region of 4 kv07 who were noticeably better than expectations. According to published statistics for the period from October to December, GDP growth accelerated to the maximum of Switzerland in the past two years against a backdrop of escalating costs for households and businesses, representing 1% against the projected 0,5% (0,9% of the previous value).
Significantly more and the fact that inflation in Switzerland has been at the level of 2.4% in February, which corresponds to a maximum chetyrnadtsatiletnemu and could well mean a further rise in interest rates in the region. As a result, the cross EUR / CHF decline we have seen from 1.5840 to 1.5790, and the couple GBP / CHF falling to 2.0610. Due to the fact that the franc now looks very overbought, from any trading recommendations on these cross-rates, we have refrained.
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